The Anglo-sphere, Russia, and China are closely watching for any opportunity arising from a Catalonia outside the EU
28.09.2017
The referendum on Catalan self-determination that will be held on
Sunday is a key political event not only for Spain, but also for the
whole of the European Union. It has also become a global event, so the
great powers are watching with particular interest, hoping that an
unexpected turn of events could play in their favor.
At first glance, the referendum has a limited geopolitical scope.
Catalonia has reaffirmed its pro-Europe nature, and only the smallest of
the fringe left groups have proposed that the Republic not become part
of the European Union, or perhaps that it joins the European Economic
Area via the EFTA (European Free Trade Association). Nevertheless, it is
clear that the pro-independence process has raised tensions within the
EU and created an institutional difficulty that is particularly
interesting to two of the blocs that have outstanding issues with
Brussels — the Anglo-sphere (the United States and the United Kingdom,
in particular) and Russia. Farther afield, but with very specific
interests, is China, which is watching developments with great interest,
in case an unexpected opportunity presents itself.
The European Union could be very much weakened
A key element to understanding what is happening are the problems
that the European Union could face if Catalonia becomes independent and
Spain reacts as badly as they have up to now.
On one hand, Madrid’s repression is already intolerable. It greatly
exceeds what the EU can accept without taking a toll. The scene of the
Commission spokesman in Brussels besieged by journalists indignantly
comparing the events in Catalonia to those in Turkey, and denouncing
Europe’s “double standard” in regard to civil liberties is a gift for
any country that could be pressured by the EU. How long will it be
before Erdogan makes use of the arguments raised by journalists from
England, Germany, Italy …? And what credibility problems will this
create for Brussels? The fact that Rajoy won’t even dare to attend the
summit in Tallin is a good indicator.
The European Union also has a greater, more pressing problem: how to
resolve Catalonia’s new position quickly. After a proclamation of
independence, the institutional instability that would be created within
the EU and the ensuing lack of control, especially in the Spanish
economy, cannot be sustained for very long. Europe will have to make a
rapid decision. And with the way things stand, it will have to be a
decision that will not sit well with Spain, because the EU cannot allow
Catalonia to be left out in the cold. It cannot allow that because to
lose London and Barcelona in two years would be a serious blow to its
international credibility, and because the economic turmoil that a
crisis of this dimension would generate would be enormous.
However, for Europe the solution is not so straightforward. Existing
treaties do not define what must be done if a part of an existing member
state secedes. Thus, there is no legal precedent that could provide
direction. The solution, therefore, can only be political, but this
would imply that either Catalonia is left out of the EU or Spanish pride
is hurt and it is demeaned politically with the acceptance of a new
Catalan member state. The decision is very complex, especially taking
into account the geopolitical ramifications: who is hoping Brussels to
err?
The Anglo-sphere in search of a key ally on the continent
The Anglo-sphere is the first line of interest, especially the
strategic alliance between the United Kingdom and the United States,
strengthened by Brexit. The understanding that both the United States
and the United Kingdom have shown in their treatment of Catalonia has
been duly noted in Brussels. Rajoy experienced this firsthand in
Washington. In the US, diplomatic recognition doesn’t depend on the whim
of the president. The powerful machinery of the State Department and
Congress has a lot to say on the matter, and considering this, the three
consecutive positions voiced by the State Department regarding
recognition of the result of the referendum are more than significant.
Meanwhile, the UK is one of the most active countries in the official
defense of Catalonia’s right to decide, particularly in Parliament. It
is clear that the issue of Gibraltar lurks in the background, and a
desire to answer the constant humiliations from Spain, but the
geopolitical context also weighs heavily. The United Kingdom must find a
new place in the world, outside of the European Union. The role of
bridge between the United States and the EU made sense when the UK was
in the EU. With the UK outside the EU, the Anglo-sphere has to become
stronger by itself and attract countries towards a space that will have
to compete, at least commercially, with the EU. The Catalan opportunity,
in this sense, is very attractive. An axis between London and Barcelona
with strong trans-Atlantic connections that could attract EFTA
countries, especially Switzerland which is increasingly moving away from
the EU, would redraw the continental map and create enormous
difficulties in Brussels, which would no longer be the only player on
the European stage.
Russia always loves any European difficulty
The competition with the Anglo-sphere is beginning to concern
Brussels, but always with the understanding that in the end it would be
an internal competition between allies. In contrast, the hypothesis that
an independent Catalonia would cozy up to Russia or especially China,
if left out of the EU, is an true nightmare for European strategists.
The fact that —despite the EU’s stance— Catalonia has consistently
rejected establishing any bonds with dubious allies, especially with
Russia, is paradoxically very reassuring to Brussels. However, imagine
what would happen in the European capital if, in a hypothetical
situation in which Catalonia was forced to abandon the EU due to Spanish
intransigence, Russia or China tried to take advantage. It is a
chilling thought to many.
Russia is already in the crosshairs, thanks especially to the
Machiavellian interpretations that some media have made of the role of
Julian Assange [who has actively supported the Catalan referendum]. Many
observers, without much evidence, connect him with the Kremlin. And a
simplistic explanation of his obvious interest in the Catalan situation
is that Putin is pulling the strings.
This is not the case, however, but it is quite true that Russia has
carefully avoided taking a position on the Catalan question, and it is
equally true that they are interested in anything that could weaken the
European Union. In addition, should the European Union not resolve the
situation easily, Russia would have an opportunity to maneuver to bring
back two major aggressions: the case of the West’s diplomatic
recognition of the independence of Kosovo and the non-recognition of the
annexation of Crimea. If the case of Catalonia is not dealt with
quickly, this would be a gift for the Kremlin, which would certainly
take advantage of it. And if the repression is obvious, Russia would go
even further, as it is already doing in Venezuela.
China, with a new Silk Road awaiting
Possible Russian interest in Catalonia worries Brussels, but even
more so does any possible Chinese involvement. In this case, the
ideological component does not concern them so much, but the trade
threat is much more serious and significant, so much so that some
observers believe that the EU would never let Catalonia escape because
having the ports of Barcelona and Tarragona at the service of China’s
commercial strategy would be the greatest problem that the EU might face
in the near future.
The Chinese government has launched the so-called New Silk Road, an
extraordinarily ambitious project that aims to reconfigure world
commerce around Beijing’s interests. This initiative is designed to
change the economic structure of the entire world, and has already had
an enormous impact in Asia and Africa.
For the moment, its impact in Europe is limited precisely because of
the role of the European Union. As a result, China has only managed to
get a toehold for part of this project in the Balkans, especially in
Serbia, and has obtained some facilities from Greece, which is a far cry
from what they hope and need. An independent Catalonia, with its ports
in Barcelona and Tarragona outside of the EU, would be —in this sense—
candy for the Chinese, and would create an absolute trade nightmare for
the European Union.
The Mediterranean, Morocco, Turkey…
The possibility that one of these three blocs could take advantage of
the Catalan referendum and cause problems for the European Union
complicates Brussels’ response, and poses serious difficulties for
Spain, given its intransigence. This is why everyone discounts the
Spanish thesis that Catalonia would remain outside of the EU, and why
people are beginning to talk openly about the process of accession of
the Catalan Republic. It is believed that this process would be swift
and easy because Catalonia is already part of the EU and it would only
be necessary to negotiate very visible political aspects, which in
practice are quite marginal. The absence of Rajoy at the EU summit in
Tallin starting today is very significant in light of this.
Discomfort within the European Union over Spain’s crackdown is
intense. Rajoy has set in motion a series of repressive acts that is
unacceptable for majority partners and leaders of the European Union,
especially following the example of the Scottish referendum. In Brussels
these days, everyone is comparing the relative ease with which the
Scottish conflict was resolved with the complications that the Spanish
repression is causing for the EU. With an added element — this
repression is forcing the EU to act if it doesn’t want to lose all of
its credibility as a world leader in human rights, a position that
European diplomacy has worked for many years to achieve.
This is especially applicable to the Mediterranean area. The terrible
images of the Spanish government repressing the voting rights of
Catalans, closing websites and threatening newspapers, handcuffing
politicians for carrying out their responsibilities, and persecuting
mayors are very damaging for the European Union. There is no doubt that
countries such as Turkey will use them whenever they wish to expose
Europe’s hypocrisy every time that Brussels protests the detention of
Kurdish mayors or the closure of newspapers in Istanbul.
Likewise, though on a lesser level, Brussels is also concerned about
the repercussions of the Catalan crisis on the southern shore of the
Mediterranean, particularly in Morocco, which might consider taking
advantage of it sees that Spain is severely weakened, and revive
territorial claims over Ceuta and Melilla in the international arena.
All of these weighty arguments are driving the debate in Brussels,
where, in hushed voices, everyone admits that they don’t know what will
happen, but that whatever does happen, it will be essential to find a
very rapid solution that will prevent further turmoil for a European
Union that is already having too much of that.
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